Over $2.2 Trillion of Commercial Real Estate Debt Set to Mature Before 2028

cliggittvaluation • January 18, 2024

In an already troubled market, commercial real estate will brace for a record amount of maturing loans, increasing the probability of a surge in loan defaults as owners of commercial real estate are forced to refinance at higher rates.


Date firm Trepp reports that 2023 saw the highest amount of debt backed by office buildings, hotels, apartments, and other forms of commercial real estate come due at $541 billion in a single year. Commercial debt maturities are anticipated to see continued rising with over $2.2 trillion coming due between now and the end of 2027. Many of these loans have been repaid or extended. In 2022 and 2023, many owners were able to tap into one- or two-year extensions that were built into their original loans.


Now, however, those extensions are expiring. Many borrowers are now confronting the higher rate environment, and they are also met with higher vacancies and a weakening cash flow – depressing property values. Owners and creditors are also grappling with challenges of expiration of deals made early in the pandemic, allowing them to delay payments until the worst of the pandemic passed.


Home mortgages have a principal that is paid off over time. Most commercial mortgages include ballon payoffs at 3, 5, or 10-year timeframes and some loans are interest only, meaning that when the debt matures the borrower has no option but to refinance or pay off the principal. Office buildings have been arguably hit the hardest due to remote and hybrid work, but damage to commercial real estate is widespread. Some multifamily markets are seeing an increase in vacancy rates, making it harder for landlord to increase rents or make payments on floating-rate debt. Additionally, industrial space is beginning to show signs of weakness.


Fitch Ratings are projecting the delinquency rate of commercial real estate loans that have been converted to securities will increase to 4.5% in 2024, then to 4.9% in 2025 which is more than double the 2.25% rate in 2023 as of November. Retail, hotel, and office delinquencies are all expected to rise according to Fitch. A decline in inflation and interest rates in recent months has somewhat eased the pain of refinancing, but borrowers will still have to refinance at much higher rates than those of their maturing loans.


Financial regulators are also expressing concerns that commercial property losses will spill into the broader financial system. Financially distressed properties can lead to a more widespread downward valuation spiral, which can reduce municipalities property tax revenues. In the 2023 annual report from the Financial Stability Oversight Council, a federal organization created after the 2008-2009 financial crisis to monitor risks to the financial system, the council warned financial institutions that they need to create more understanding of their exposure to commercial real estate. They were also warned to examine loans they made to other real-estate creditors.


Over $50 billion of loans maturing this year are from non-bank lenders, such as private equity firms and mortgage real estate investment trusts according to Trepp. Refinancing is the preferred route when loans mature, but it is a tricky road to navigate now with creditors coping with the Federal Reserve’s fastest hike in interest rates since the 1980’s.


There is an upside to all of this, though. Many commercial-property borrowers will have to work out deals with existing creditors when loans mature. Lenders will often agree to extend loans if owners agree to contribute additional capital. There are times where parties are not able to come to terms, or borrowers will prefer to hand property keys over to creditors rather than putting good money after bad. A weak property sales market has complicated negotiations, making it harder for borrowers and lenders to agree on what a property is worth.  Borrowers tend to view property values in a more optimistic light than lenders, who look for worst-case scenarios. Thaddeus Wilson a partner at law firm King & Spalding, has been involved in nearly 50 workout negotiations in the past year. “At some point borrowers are going to have to come to grips that their lenders might be right about the values and look at it from the worst-case scenario,” he told the Wall Street Journal. 


If you own Commercial Real Estate in West Central Florida, Cliggitt Valuation, Inc. is prepared to perform preliminary research and provide you with an accurate timeline for completion and a fair price for your appraisal and valuation needs. You can find our market areas by clicking here or click here to reach our contact page. Helpful information to include in your request is either a property address or parcel ID number, your name, email, and phone number, and other relevant information such as what you intend to use your appraisal for. We look forward to the opportunity to work with you!


Thank you for your interest. If you are in need of Appraisal & Valuation services in the West Central Florida Market, contact:

Mike Cliggitt, MAI, MRICS, CCIM

813.405.1705 | 863.661.1165 - Direct Lines

findvalue@cliggitt.com

Appraisal & Valuation Markets


Source: The Wall Street Journal

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By September 9, 2025
The University of South Florida is moving forward with plans for a major mixed-use development on its Tampa campus known as the Fletcher District. Earlier this month, the university’s trustees approved the concept, and the proposal is now heading into a 90-day review process with the City of Tampa, Hillsborough County, and other local agencies. If approved by the Board of Governors in November, construction could begin as early as next year, with a second public hearing scheduled for December 10. The first phase of the Fletcher District will transform 27 acres into a combination of student and multifamily housing, a hotel and conference center, retail and dining options, green spaces, and a new academic building. Developers may also add an additional 20 acres of cottage-style family housing depending on early demand. The project is being structured as a public-private partnership, meaning USF’s direct financial role will be limited to the academic building and its share of infrastructure improvements. This site has been the focus of debate in recent years, as nearby residents previously pushed back on development proposals tied to land along Fletcher Avenue containing wetlands and sandhill preserves. In 2023, USF President Rhea Law designated the Forest Preserve as undevelopable and closed the university golf course adjacent to it. The current plan emphasizes preservation by including wildlife buffers, native vegetation restoration, and stormwater management systems designed to complement the natural environment. A full traffic analysis is also underway to address concerns about congestion along Fletcher Avenue. Reactions to the plan have been mixed. Student leaders see the Fletcher District as a “win-win” for the university and the broader community, citing the addition of much-needed housing and economic activity. Trustees have expressed optimism about the project’s potential to enhance campus life, with suggestions for public artwork and other landmarks in the green space. Local residents, however, remain concerned about flooding, runoff, and increased traffic in the surrounding neighborhoods. Some fear the project could overwhelm nearby infrastructure, though university officials say they are committed to working within all environmental and regulatory requirements. From a valuation perspective, the Fletcher District represents a significant shift in the development landscape around USF. Large-scale mixed-use projects of this nature often set new benchmarks for rent levels, absorption rates, and market expectations. The addition of multifamily housing, hospitality space, and retail could create ripple effects across adjacent submarkets, while the public-private structure introduces unique considerations for land valuation and long-term lease structures. As details continue to emerge, appraisers, investors, and property owners alike will be watching closely to see how this project influences growth and value in the area. Thank you for your interest. Have questions regarding the local market? Navigate the Real Estate Market with confidence, and contact us at Cliggitt Valuation for your appraisal, consulting, and valuation needs today. Mike Cliggitt, MAI, MRICS, CCIM 813.405.1705 | 863.661.1165 - Direct Lines findvalue@cliggitt.com Appraisal & Valuation Markets Questions about our blog? Contact our Director of Sales & Marketing, Sydney Avolt. Sydney Avolt 727.403.7418 - Direct Line sydney@cliggitt.com
By cliggittvaluation July 31, 2025
After a pause following last year’s hurricanes, the Philadelphia Phillies have resumed discussions with the City of Clearwater and Pinellas County to revisit long-term plans for upgrading their spring training complex. While no formal proposal has been submitted yet, early conversations signal a renewed interest in reaching a mutually beneficial agreement. City Manager Jennifer Poirrier, who is leading negotiations on behalf of Clearwater, says the team appears to be taking past community feedback seriously. “The Phillies organization definitely seems to have been listening,” Poirrier said, noting cautious optimism about progress. Pinellas County Administrator Barry Burton has also been involved in the meetings, given the likelihood that the Phillies will request funding from the county’s bed tax—a tax collected on short-term lodging stays. “Our role stems from the tourism impact the Phillies bring,” Burton said. “They’ve indicated that they may request funding from the bed tax, which is why we’re part of these conversations.” Back in 2019, the Phillies requested $40 million from the county’s bed tax to fund a nearly $80 million renovation of BayCare Ballpark and the nearby Carpenter Complex. That proposal didn’t gain traction, especially as the facilities—built in 2004—were significantly newer than others that had received funding, such as the Toronto Blue Jays’ Dunedin complex. Since then, project plans have remained fluid. In 2022, the Phillies unveiled a vision for a year-round player development hub, with cost estimates reaching $300 million. Later, they introduced a proposed mixed-use development—Ballpark Village—featuring residential units, retail, and dining space. The team purchased 13 acres just south of the complex for $22.5 million in November 2023 to support this expansion. Still, a more modest stadium-focused project, with a projected cost around $65 million, seems to be the first step forward. Poirrier confirmed that a scaled-down version is the likely direction in the near term but emphasized openness to more comprehensive plans in the future. “The U.S. 19 corridor holds enormous potential for economic growth,” she said. “We’re dreaming big and keeping our minds open.” The most recent meeting between city, county, and Phillies representatives took place on July 16, with another one scheduled for Friday. While Clearwater hasn’t re-engaged its former consulting firm CAA Icon—paid over $260,000 for its past role in negotiations—it may do so again down the line. From the Phillies’ side, key personnel in the discussions include Director of Florida Operations John Timberlake, BayCare Ballpark GM Doug Kemp, and CFO John Nickolas. Timberlake has not provided public comment on the meetings. City and county representatives, including Poirrier and Burton, are also planning a visit to Philadelphia in late August, a tradition where local officials are hosted by the team at Citizens Bank Park. These visits often include dinners, games, and conversations—but no negotiation meetings are currently scheduled for the trip. The Phillies have held their spring training in Clearwater since 1947 and have built deep ties to the community. In addition to their stadium investments, the team has made philanthropic contributions, including a $1 million donation toward hurricane relief last November. As of now, no final timeline has been established for the proposal or public funding request. “I think it’s safe to say everyone wants this finalized sooner rather than later,” Poirrier said, “but there’s no definitive timeframe just yet.” Source: Tampa Bay Times Thank you for your interest. Have questions regarding the local market? Navigate the Real Estate Market with confidence, and contact us at Cliggitt Valuation for your appraisal, consulting, and valuation needs today. Mike Cliggitt, MAI, MRICS, CCIM 813.405.1705 | 863.661.1165 - Direct Lines findvalue@cliggitt.com Appraisal & Valuation Markets Questions about our blog? Contact our Director of Sales & Marketing, Sydney Avolt. Sydney Avolt 727.403.7418 - Direct Line sydney@cliggitt.com
By cliggittvaluation July 25, 2025
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